42 townhome units · Raleigh, NC · Meridian Land Co. LLC · First lien, $5.20M commitment · $1.50M borrower equity in
If the sponsor defaults, what does the collateral return against the balance outstanding that month? Stress: price −15%, 9-month resolution, 6% carry, commissions and legal. Bars below the line are principal at risk; everything else is cushion.
| Default month | Balance at default | Collateral state | Recovery, base | Recovery, stressed | Loss severity, stressed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | $2,538,900 | Graded site, plat recorded, utilities started | 118% | 106% | — |
| 6 | $3,525,100 | 58% horizontal · mains accepted · rebalanced | 114% | 102% | — |
| 9 | $4,182,000 | Horizontal complete · 12 finished lots, 8 contracted | 110% | 98% | 2% |
| 12 | $4,411,000 | 24 finished lots · releases running · peak exposure | 106% | 96% | 4% |
| 15 | $3,624,000 | 33 finished · 24 closed · balance amortizing | 111% | 101% | — |
| 18 | $2,310,000 | 42 finished · 34 closed · tail collateral | 121% | 109% | — |
Peak exposure is month 12 — money in the ground, releases just catching up: worst-case severity 4% of principal. Weighted by when construction loans actually default, expected stressed severity is under 1%. Base case recovers in full at every month. First lien, full recourse, completion guarantee behind all of it.